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National Press Foundation
United States
Приєднався 13 лют 2007
The National Press Foundation is a nonpartisan nonprofit 501(c)(3) whose mission is to “make good journalists better.” We do this by providing free training on complex issues so that journalists can better inform the public. Since 1976, programs held in Washington, D.C., across the country, and around the world, have brought thousands of reporters, editors and producers together with leading experts to discuss significant issues ranging from economics and politics to race, health and climate.
U.S.-China Trade War: Do We Have a Winner?
U.S. Tariffs on China Missed the Mark, Economists Say
Singapore Management University's Yuan Mei and East Asian Institute's Chen Gang talk about where they see China's economy headed.
by Madeleine Sherer, National Press Foundation
Reports of China’s economic death are greatly exaggerated, say economists Yuan Mei and Chen Gang.
“It’s not [about whether] the Chinese economy is weak or not, it’s about how much China can buy from other parts of the world,” said Gang, deputy director and research fellow at the East Asian Institute of the National University of Singapore. “I do not think that China’s economy is going to collapse anytime soon … although the property bubble is really, really serious.”
China Shock: ‘We are Witnessing a Second Wave’
For decades, China has seen a major rise in merchandise exports, particularly compared to the U.S., Japan and the UK. Economists called the phenomenon the “China shock.”
“We observed the pretty sharp rise of U.S. spending on Chinese imports. From 1991 to 2007, for example, it rises from 0.06% to 4.6%,” said Mei, an assistant professor of economics at the Singapore Management University School of Economics. “During the same period of time, the working age employment in the manufacturing sector in the U.S. declined by a third.”
While China substantially cut into U.S. manufacturing, Mei told NPF International Trade Fellows they shouldn’t ignore other channels in which trading with China benefits the U.S.
“Imports of China would reduce consumer prices in the U.S. They are cheaper than locally produced, and China also provides more varieties,” Mei said.
From China Shock to U.S. Tariffs
Prior to 2018, the U.S. had a fairly liberal international trade policy, Mei said. But under then-president Donald Trump, tariffs on Chinese imports like steel and aluminum went up to 20%. A survey of American economists at the time unanimously agreed that the tariffs would not improve Americans’ welfare.
The tariffs were also largely ineffective, since many Chinese companies simply began manufacturing abroad instead. China actually saw a trade surplus overall in subsequent years.
“Despite all the trade measures … against the Chinese products over the past few years, China still managed to maintain its trade surplus at a very high level,” Gang said.
More recently, the U.S. has placed tariffs on electric vehicles made in China. Mei believes this is another misstep that will only make the processing of raw materials more expensive.
China’s ‘Secret Weapons’
Though Gang says China should import morer, he believes that the policy priority for China’s trade is “to maintain the trade surplus because more than 3 trillion foreign reserve is vital for the Communist Party’s legitimacy.”
Much of the discussion around China’s economy skews toward the dire as its workforce declines and manufacturing moves overseas into Southeast Asia. Still, Gang said that he sees reports of these economic woes as exaggerated. He spoke about how China is voluntarily moving their supply chains outside of China.
“They do want to move some of the supply chains to other parts of the world, especially Southeast Asia or Mexico, but not all. They want to retain the high-end manufacturing, including the research and development within China,” Gang said.
This allows China to refocus their domestic efforts on other parts of the manufacturing process.
“China has other secret weapons, including the new three: the electric vehicles, the solar panel, and the batteries. So I think the key question is to identify, what areas China are working on to further improve, to further boost its export, and to increase its trade surplus?”
Speakers: Chen Gang, Senior Research Fellow, Assistant Director at East Asian Institute, National
University of Singapore
Yuan Mei, Assistant Professor, Economics, Singapore Management University
This fellowship is part of an ongoing program of journalism training and awards for trade coverage sponsored by the Hinrich Foundation.
This video was produced within the Evelyn Y. Davis studios. NPF is solely responsible for the content.
Singapore Management University's Yuan Mei and East Asian Institute's Chen Gang talk about where they see China's economy headed.
by Madeleine Sherer, National Press Foundation
Reports of China’s economic death are greatly exaggerated, say economists Yuan Mei and Chen Gang.
“It’s not [about whether] the Chinese economy is weak or not, it’s about how much China can buy from other parts of the world,” said Gang, deputy director and research fellow at the East Asian Institute of the National University of Singapore. “I do not think that China’s economy is going to collapse anytime soon … although the property bubble is really, really serious.”
China Shock: ‘We are Witnessing a Second Wave’
For decades, China has seen a major rise in merchandise exports, particularly compared to the U.S., Japan and the UK. Economists called the phenomenon the “China shock.”
“We observed the pretty sharp rise of U.S. spending on Chinese imports. From 1991 to 2007, for example, it rises from 0.06% to 4.6%,” said Mei, an assistant professor of economics at the Singapore Management University School of Economics. “During the same period of time, the working age employment in the manufacturing sector in the U.S. declined by a third.”
While China substantially cut into U.S. manufacturing, Mei told NPF International Trade Fellows they shouldn’t ignore other channels in which trading with China benefits the U.S.
“Imports of China would reduce consumer prices in the U.S. They are cheaper than locally produced, and China also provides more varieties,” Mei said.
From China Shock to U.S. Tariffs
Prior to 2018, the U.S. had a fairly liberal international trade policy, Mei said. But under then-president Donald Trump, tariffs on Chinese imports like steel and aluminum went up to 20%. A survey of American economists at the time unanimously agreed that the tariffs would not improve Americans’ welfare.
The tariffs were also largely ineffective, since many Chinese companies simply began manufacturing abroad instead. China actually saw a trade surplus overall in subsequent years.
“Despite all the trade measures … against the Chinese products over the past few years, China still managed to maintain its trade surplus at a very high level,” Gang said.
More recently, the U.S. has placed tariffs on electric vehicles made in China. Mei believes this is another misstep that will only make the processing of raw materials more expensive.
China’s ‘Secret Weapons’
Though Gang says China should import morer, he believes that the policy priority for China’s trade is “to maintain the trade surplus because more than 3 trillion foreign reserve is vital for the Communist Party’s legitimacy.”
Much of the discussion around China’s economy skews toward the dire as its workforce declines and manufacturing moves overseas into Southeast Asia. Still, Gang said that he sees reports of these economic woes as exaggerated. He spoke about how China is voluntarily moving their supply chains outside of China.
“They do want to move some of the supply chains to other parts of the world, especially Southeast Asia or Mexico, but not all. They want to retain the high-end manufacturing, including the research and development within China,” Gang said.
This allows China to refocus their domestic efforts on other parts of the manufacturing process.
“China has other secret weapons, including the new three: the electric vehicles, the solar panel, and the batteries. So I think the key question is to identify, what areas China are working on to further improve, to further boost its export, and to increase its trade surplus?”
Speakers: Chen Gang, Senior Research Fellow, Assistant Director at East Asian Institute, National
University of Singapore
Yuan Mei, Assistant Professor, Economics, Singapore Management University
This fellowship is part of an ongoing program of journalism training and awards for trade coverage sponsored by the Hinrich Foundation.
This video was produced within the Evelyn Y. Davis studios. NPF is solely responsible for the content.
Переглядів: 874
Відео
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Переглядів 57День тому
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Chance of Taiwan, China Reunification is ‘Nil’ - What Happens Next?
Переглядів 39 тис.День тому
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Переглядів 72День тому
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Переглядів 16День тому
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Biden or Trump, ‘U.S. Policy Will Be Transactional’
Переглядів 277День тому
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Переглядів 88День тому
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Trump has a good team such as Pompeo and Miles Yu who know CCP well and they have been influencing Trump in his PRC policy! They are the one that got Trump started to be openly anti-CCP!
The fact is: CCP seized power from the government of ROC in 1949! CCP has no right at all to take Taiwan from ROC! By right CCP should return the mainland to ROC!
George and Kishore are the same, China proxies
Kishore always siding China
I’m glad that S’pore still has wise people like him! Kishore has been a fool! I suspect he’s paid by CCP!
Taiwan don't belong to China, Taiwan title deed us with US.
This replacement idea came from CCP! They are fearful that their ideology was not commonly accepted by the world, they have inferiority complex hence they consider America as its biggest adversary and call for replacement of USA!
I don’t know what it is but I just love this guy
the Taiwanese are unbelievably entitled and arrogant. and racist.
THERE IS ABSOLUTELY SUPPORT IN TAIWAN FOR COMPLETE INDEPENDENCE
If you are a Master Chess Player and you are playing against 10 other Top Chess Players simultaneously at the same time, how do you win all 10 of them with ease? That’s the kind of multi-dimensional brain and analysis capabilities he has. Only old age can take that away from him. Your views of him, very good, good, average, below average, over-rated, mediocre, stupid etc is most probably of no value to him.
Dokończyłam dzieła w sposób dość dosadny. Za podziękujmy ludziom osobą które brały wręcz czynny udział w poszukiwaniu prawdy.
Comey v wygrał.
What an embarrassment, a fool that doesn't know what he is talking about, a total waste of time😅
Check out General Flynn’s recent interview with Eric Metaxas.
Nil? This guy is completely one sided based on his biased thinking. SG had wasted so much resources feeding this guy in the government for so many years.
The title is misleading. Itwas voluntary unification not reunification.
I would like a Singapore YT channel to host George Yeo, Kishore Mahbubani and Bilahari Kausikan to discuss SINGAPORE foreign policy. Singapore was on the winning side during cold war era. We are now obviously on the losing side. We are now NOT on the winning side AT ALL. How to solve this problem? How to pivot? Are we doomed to die with U.S.? Get a couple of Singaporeans to talk about Singapore foreign policy issues. Elections is coming. Such a discussion can be helpful and productive.
He states his views clearly. Not all will agree with him. That’s normal.
The Host is…😂 Erm Erm Erm Erm…. 😅
😍always love Bilahari's candor and clear-eyed analyses and insights
Frank and very well-presented.
Any whitish guy thinks he has the rights to dictate the fates of others😂😂😂
Is the hate expressed here towards Bilahari Kausikan because he's something less than a 1/4 'Chinese'? ie too Malay and too Indian.
Don't like this guy's style a bit. I can agree one thing: every country should play the game for their only interest and China will play each one of ASEAN countries to her interest. The difference: China won't bomb or invade ASEAN. The West did many times.
Impressive how quickly all the Chinese bots arrived here. Very interesting talk.
If XJP is mediocre, then China is also mediocre for selecting Xi as their leader. He also doesn't subscribe to The Asian Century for he thinks US is an Asian Power because of The Pacific Ocean. Definitely a very pro US geopolitical apologist... as against Kishore 's more China apologist take in geo-politics...
My take on this inhumane politician, Bilahari Kausikan, is that he does not mind people being denied democracy by western and NATO governments in the 21st century to feed their own resource geopolicies. To him, it's just a reality they should learn to deal with. And if they can't, tough!
Brilliant guy. Funny and engaging.
You can feel his arrogance through his talking style
S'pore us one of the biggest investor in china with many big projects in china. Is he telling the world that sgp are being run by a bunch morons? Big mouth but with pea or pig brain?
ending 70% of a sentences with Right does not make it right
This guy's ultra hardcore sinophobia and anti Chinese sentiment reflects bigger problems within Singapore. Actually this problem is very deep and very old. It is systemic. It is not an issue of foreign policy. It is completely domestic. Only naive people will see this as foreign policy issue.
US does not want more FTA it has hurt the American people for years. Also, Migration is a major problem. America is losing all are good paying jobs. India needs to start thinking of building their own country, if they want to become a big power.
He should have a debate on this topic with Kishore, he will be put into Kishore's pocket in the first min
Pro USA deplomat
How did he become perm sec?!?
He is ignorant. China was pivotal in the freedom of some Asian countries. He should not be lecturing young students.
Ignorance displayed publicly. America is a maritime power with a chaotic view of the world. The west and east Europeans have primordial sensitivity based on history of world domination. The world has changed and China epitomizes this change. Rich civilizations that were colonies are rising and cannot be contained. Or dominated. War and force of arms no longer serve European powers or America. The residual Churchill’s philosophy of conquest can no longer be imposed on the world. China on the other hand will grow to be a dominant world power with longevity. In the foreseeable future, China will continue on this trajectory. One China already exists because Taiwan being a democracy can easily be hedged into capitulation without the need for a war. I believe that this is the view of Xi and his team.
An excellent presentation and Q&A session with a smart audience by a very wise man who fully understands Realpolitik in dangerous times. I highly recommend you listen or view if you are dispassionate and analytical.Having read the comments it's clear that most are from an ardently pro-CCP persuasion, but highly emotional and lacking strategic or geopolitical insight. However, professionals and graduate students involved in foreign affairs will find this session well-worth the time, no matter your international political persuasion.
This is a funny but ignorant presentation. Power and control are the dicy base of growth and peace. Societies lose equilibrium easily. The western democracies are weakened by the loosened controls and power structure.
Counter-intuitive, a truly non-diplomatic, no-holds-barrred presentation.
Very insightful. much better than Kishore.
I always wonder why he could be a permanent secretary? the govt gave him a scholarship to study a PhD, but he failed half way.
Don't watch, waste of your time.
Always good to hear a bit sarcastic but defensible remark. 1) On China BRI and XI, he is entitled to have his perspective although I think BRI is a great strategy that benefits China and members short, medium and long term one way another in terms of export, resource, infrastructure, jobs and currency angles etc. 2) True, voluntary unification from Taiwan is almost nil as HK would be in a way too given the possibility, due to fear of unknown and long time brain washing, even Taiwan becomes very poor relatively (think Philipine wanting to be part of China or USA?). But 92 consensus is in a way is the status quo with Taiwan maintaining its constitution (of owning mainland too, as a result of one china but with diffierent interpretations), which I think will be adhered down the road to maintain peace across the strait. Short term wise, unification will happen by accident when a war is triggered (by US status quo change or Taiwan independence)
Such strong disagreements with his views. Wow!
In this cloak n dagger geopolitics, kausikan is nominated to say pro US opinions. Those 'balancing' opinions are just it. Clint Eastwood in Dirty Harry, "an opinion is like an A*hole, everyone has one". But kausikan, has privileges, he has multiple and thats it.
PAP will use him to cater to West. While they will use George Yeo and Kishore to cater to China. But this guy's sinophobia is real.
Should Singapore policy makers heed this 'John Bolton of Singapore'? He thinks the US 7th Fleet in Asia is the most formidable armada in the world.
This clown is living in which GRC? I think people should complain to their MP on his Sinophobic views. This is completely unacceptable. We are paying tax dollars to finance salaries of these anti China, anti chinese, sinophobic clowns. It is like picking up rock and smashing my own face. NO RESPECT at all.